Brahmaputra River Water: Amid Pakistan’s fresh attempt to stir fears over India’s water security, Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma stepped in to clarify the reality. His firm statement highlighted how the Brahmaputra gains strength within India — making Pakistan’s claim both misplaced and misleading.
In a sharp rebuttal to Pakistan’s latest fear-mongering narrative, Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma dismissed the idea that China could block the Brahmaputra River’s water flow to India. This alarmist theory, which surfaced after India’s assertive shift on the Indus Waters Treaty, is being pushed as a retaliatory talking point by Pakistani strategists. But the facts — geographical, technical, and diplomatic — tell a very different story.
At a time when water diplomacy is becoming a new frontier in geopolitical gamesmanship, it’s crucial to understand the realities of the Brahmaputra’s flow, the limits of Chinese dam infrastructure, and India’s robust response mechanisms. Let’s cut through the noise and break down why this “China water card” is more fiction than fact — and how India remains firmly in control of its water security.
Brahmaputra’s Flow: Predominantly Indian
Chief Minister Sarma highlighted that approximately 65–70% of the Brahmaputra’s water volume is generated within India, primarily through monsoon rainfall in states like Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Nagaland, and Meghalaya. The river’s major tributaries—including the Subansiri, Lohit, Kameng, Manas, Dhansiri, Jia-Bharali, and Kopili—further augment its flow. In contrast, China’s contribution, mainly from glacial melt and limited Tibetan rainfall, accounts for only about 30–35% of the river’s total volume.
Hydrological data supports this distribution: at the Indo-China border near Tuting, the Brahmaputra’s flow is approximately 2,000–3,000 cubic meters per second. However, as it traverses into the Assam plains, the flow increases significantly, reaching 15,000–20,000 cubic meters per second during the monsoon season.
Brahmaputra River Water: Can China Really Control Its Flow?
While China has long planned a mega hydropower project on the Yarlung Tsangpo — the upstream stretch of the Brahmaputra — its actual impact on India’s water supply is widely overstated. The proposed dam, located in Tibet’s Medog County near the Indian border, is part of China’s broader push for renewable energy.
However, experts caution that the project’s primary goal is hydropower generation, not water diversion, which limits its downstream consequences. Furthermore, any attempt to alter the river’s natural flow significantly would require engineering on an unimaginable scale — something even Beijing has never officially signaled.
India, aware of the strategic sensitivities, continues to keep a close watch. The Ministry of External Affairs and Central Water Commission maintain regular surveillance on Chinese infrastructure developments, using satellite data and bilateral communication channels.
In essence, while vigilance is necessary, fears of China weaponizing the Brahmaputra remain largely speculative — not supported by ground realities or hydrological science.
Pakistan’s Narrative: A Strategic Diversion?
Pakistan’s latest attempt to shift the narrative on water security took shape when Rana Ihsaan Afzal, Special Assistant to Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, publicly questioned:
“What if China stops the Brahmaputra’s water to India?”
This speculative remark came shortly after India asserted its right to revisit the long-standing Indus Waters Treaty, a move that many in Pakistan viewed as a diplomatic jolt. By invoking China’s potential to control the Brahmaputra, Afzal sought to introduce a new scare narrative, possibly to balance Pakistan’s perceived disadvantage under the evolving water discourse.
But this alarmist theory didn’t go unanswered.
How Reduced Brahmaputra River Flow Could Benefit India
Assam Chief Minister Himanta Biswa Sarma (HBS) hit back with a clear, fact-based response that quickly cut through the noise. He stated:
“Brahmaputra is a river that grows in India — not shrinks.”
Sarma’s reply wasn’t just political rhetoric — it was a data-backed rebuttal. He reminded the public that India contributes nearly 70% of the Brahmaputra’s total volume, thanks to heavy monsoon-fed rainfall and major tributaries across the Northeast. In contrast, China contributes only 30–35%, primarily from glacial melt and limited Tibetan rainfall.
Addressing concerns raised by Pakistan and some international commentators, Sarma highlighted that even in the unlikely event China reduces its water flow — something that Beijing has neither threatened nor signaled officially — such a reduction might actually aid India in managing the devastating annual floods in Assam that displace lakhs of people and destroy livelihoods every year.
Meanwhile, Pakistan, which has historically benefited from over seven decades of preferential water access under the Indus Waters Treaty, finds itself unsettled as India asserts its sovereign water rights more decisively. This shifting dynamic has prompted Pakistan to raise speculative narratives regarding the Brahmaputra, but the facts firmly establish that the river’s flow is predominantly an Indian hydrological phenomenon.
By doing so, HBS debunked Pakistan’s China card and underscored that unlike the Indus, the Brahmaputra is not dependent on upstream sources outside India.
Officials and experts have since interpreted Rana Ihsaan Afzal’s comment as a diversionary tactic — an attempt to internationalize India’s internal water policies by drawing unfounded parallels between two very different river systems.
In essence, Sarma’s response served as a timely and factual correction — calling out Pakistan’s misplaced fear-mongering with India’s monsoon-driven hydrological reality.
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