Reliance Industries is expected to report a robust 6% sequential profit growth and 5%+ EBITDA expansion in Q3 FY25, driven by strong operational performance.
Reliance Industries Q3 FY25 Results: Reliance Industries is set to announce its Q3 FY25 financial results on January 16, with analysts predicting a mixed performance. Strong growth in telecom earnings, improvements in refining margins, and moderate growth in retail are expected to drive the company’s overall performance.
Reliance Industries Q3 FY25 Results Preview: Strong Telecom Growth and Refining Margins Drive Profit
Reliance Industries is set to announce its Q3 FY25 results on January 16, with analysts predicting strong financial performance driven by key factors like telecom earnings growth, improved refining margins, and steady retail growth. Q3 revenue is expected to rise quarter-on-quarter, while net profit is forecast to grow sequentially by 6%. Analysts are also predicting a 5%+ EBITDA expansion in the October-December quarter, driven by robust refining margins and higher ARPU in digital services, particularly benefiting from the residual impact of recent tariff hikes.
Despite moderate growth in retail, consolidated EBITDA is expected to show positive results, reflecting Reliance Industries’ diversified operations. Even though there is expected weakness in petrochemicals, the strong telecom earnings and refining margins are expected to offset challenges, supporting the company’s continued profitability in Q3 FY25.
According to a Moneycontrol poll of brokerages, Reliance Industries net profit is projected to reach Rs 17,482 crore, reflecting a 6% growth sequentially. Additionally, EBITDA is expected to expand to Rs 41,125 crore, marking a healthy 5%-plus increase quarter-on-quarter.
Reliance O2C Earnings Surge on Diesel Crack Recovery; Jio ARPU Hits Record High with Tariff Hikes
Reliance O2C Earnings Driven by Diesel Crack Recovery
Reliance Industries’ Oil-to-Chemicals (O2C) segment is witnessing significant improvement, powered by the recovery in diesel cracks and reduced crude premiums. According to Emkay Research, refining margins (GRMs) are projected to range between $8.7-10.8 per barrel, driven by:
- Favorable ex-China supply-demand dynamics
- Lower crude costs
However, the petrochemical (petchem) segment faces headwinds, with margins under pressure due to unresolved supply-demand challenges for olefins and aromatics, as noted by Goldman Sachs. These issues may hinder short-term growth in the petchem division despite the robust refining performance.
Jio’s ARPU Growth Propels Digital Services Performance
Reliance Jio continues to dominate India’s digital ecosystem, delivering strong operational results. Analysts at Elara Capital project a 17% YoY and 4% QoQ rise in Jio’s EBITDA, fueled by:
- Higher ARPU: Expected to increase to ₹203-205, driven by recent tariff hikes
- Stable Subscriber Base: While additions are muted, existing subscribers remain steady
These factors position Jio for continued growth and profitability, cementing its leadership in India’s telecom market.
Reliance Industries Powers Ahead with Balanced Growth Across O2C and Digital Services
Reliance Industries showcases its strength with a strategic balance between its Oil-to-Chemicals (O2C) and digital services segments. The O2C division benefits from recovering diesel cracks and strong refining margins, while Jio’s ARPU surge to ₹203-205 drives digital growth. Despite challenges in the petrochemical business due to global supply-demand pressures, the company’s ability to navigate market dynamics reinforces its resilience.
By capitalizing on favorable trends in refining and telecom, Reliance cements its position as a leader in both energy and digital ecosystems, offering consistent growth potential for the future.
The petrochemical segment faces challenges due to global supply-demand pressures, particularly for olefins and aromatics. However, Reliance’s ability to adapt and optimize operations underscores its position as a leader in both energy and telecom. By focusing on strategic growth across its diverse business segments, the company is well-positioned to sustain long-term profitability and deliver consistent value to stakeholders, even amid evolving market conditions. This dual strength in refining and digital innovation ensures Reliance remains at the forefront of India’s economic transformation.
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